FANDUEL NBA Value Plays for Thursday (1/5)
There are 8 games on the NBA slate tonight with plenty of fantasy
options on FanDuel. Coming off of a loss last night to Charlotte, the
Oklahoma City Thunder will travel to Houston in what is projected to be
the highest scoring game of the night (225 o/u). This makes sense
considering they are the NBA's two highest scoring teams. Don't be
afraid to load up on players from these two teams. You will also have
some tough choices tonight as both Russell Westbrook and James Harden
are in action. Fitting one of these fantasy superstars into your lineup
is never a bad idea, but it will require you to target some value plays.
Here are 10 good value options on Fan Duel tonight as you construct
your roster. Just like I do with my own lineups, decipher the
information available to make the best decisions you can make for the
contest(s) you enter. As always, trust the process!
POINT GUARD
Isaiah Whitehead (BKN): $3,600 at IND
Whitehead should start again tonight in place of the injured Jeremy
Lin. He probably won’t light up a box score but he is a cheap play
playing starter’s minutes in the second-highest projected scoring game
of the night. In the two previous games that he has started in place of
Lin, he has 10.7 and 19.2 FD pts, so he does carry some risk. In the
last meeting against Indiana (November 25), Whitehead had 21.9 FD pts.
SHOOTING GUARD
Victor Oladipo (OKC): $5,900 vs. HOU
He has averaged 33 minutes per game in the three games since his
injury. In the last two games, he has put up 30.0 and 28.1 FD pts.
Certainly there is always some concern with playing back-to-back games
soon after returning from injury but he is explosive and this will be a
high-scoring game. Overall, he is the 2nd most undervalued
play of the night according to FantasyPros projection models. In the two
earlier matchups against Houston, Oladipo has averaged 20.5 ppg and 85
rpg.
Allen Crabbe (POR): $3,800 vs. LAL
He
has averaged 22.3 FD pts in his last 4 games, including a 28.1 point
performance last night against Golden State. If Lillard is still out
tonight, then Crabbe is a great play at home against a bad Lakers
defense. If Lillard plays then he is merely a good play.
SMALL FORWARD
Maurice Harkless (POR): $4,800 vs. LAL
Harkless has a fairly high floor but a low ceiling. He has scored 18+
FD pts in 9 of his last 11 games. The Lakers give up the second most
points overall in the NBA (only the Nets are worse). Not a glamorous
pick compared to teammates like Lillard and McCollum but he can provide
the meat and potatoes to your lineup.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA): $4,600 at DET
He has been inconsistent this year but does have 20+ FD pts in 6 of his
last 8 games. During that span of games, he has averaged nearly 32
minutes per game so he is definitely getting the usage you like to see
from a sub-5K player. Kidd-Gilchrist is coming off a double-double
(14-11) in last night’s win over OKC for 28.1 FD pts.
POWER FORWARD
Trevor Booker (BKN): $5,500 at IND
Booker certainly came to play Monday against a stingy Utah defense. He
had a double-double (17 and 15) in 34 minutes of play for 39.0 FD pts.
He is averaging 28.4 FD pts in his last 4 games. I will take 5x value
any day of the week, especially in a matchup tonight that is projected
to be a high scoring affair. The last time, Booker squared off against
Indiana, he had a double-double and 31.5 FD pts.
Thaddeus Young (IND): $5,200 vs. BKN
Young has been getting a significant amount of playing time lately
averaging 33 minutes per game over the last 9 games. During that
stretch, he has had 19.9+ FD pts in 8 of those games (including 3 games
of 30+). He has also scored at least 10 points in those games, as well.
Tonight he has a matchup with the worst defense in the league.
CENTER
Steven Adams (OKC): $5,600 vs. HOU
He has been seeing a good amount of playing time lately (33 mpg in last
3 games). He is coming off of a double-double last night at Charlotte
(18 points and 12 rebounds). This game should be a shootout and Adams
last two games have seen him earn 40.6 and 38.9 FD pts. The last time he
played Houston, he went for 37.5 FD pts in a double-double performance
(24 pts, 10 rebs). Adams has a fairly safe floor as demonstrated by his
streak of 15 straight games of 20+ FD pts.
Montrezl Harrell (HOU): $4,700 at OKC
Harrell had a double-double last time he played OKC. He has averaged
31.0 FD pts in the last three games (averaging 30+ minutes in each). He
is athletic and is getting usage. He has done a great job filling in for
the injured Clint Capela.
Al Jefferson (IND): $3,900 vs. BKN
Has not scored above 18.1 FD pts in his last four games and is not
getting a ton of minutes. However, slump busting Brooklyn is coming to
town. Brooklyn gives up the most points of any NBA team, nearly 10
points more than the second most-inept squad (Lakers). He had 20 FD pts
the last time he faced the Nets. He doesn’t have a ton of upside any
more but if you are playing Harden or Westbrook, then he is a cheap
option. Jefferson is also the most undervalued player according to
FantasyPros projection model.
Bechler is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bechler, follow him on twitter @WinningDFS101 or on his website at CoachBechler.com.
TRUST THE PROCESS: Week 17 NFL Fantasy Preview
Where's the NFL season gone? Sadly, it is Week 17 which means teams are resting starters for the playoffs and other teams are trying out players for the future. All 32 teams will be in action on Sunday for a full 16-game slate. What follows are some thoughts to help you make the best decision for your fantasy rosters this week. I play a balance of Head-to-Heads and Guaranteed Prize Pool Tourneys on DraftKings. I have a lot of fun doing it and rarely lose more than I would of if I went to see a movie. Oftentimes I win, especially #Brag my recent 2016 season championship. GL and have fun this weekend.
Two Peas in a Pod - The best stack of the week looks to be Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, which just so happened to be the best stack last week. These two guys are in-sync right now. Rodgers scored 40.18 DK points and Jordy scored 39.40. They were #2 and #4 overall. Rodgers passed for 347 yards and accounted for 5 TD's. Jordy had 9 receptions for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns against a supposedly strong Minnesota defense. Green Bay plays indoors at Detroit this week. The game is projected to be the 2nd highest scoring game of the week. The Packers enter the game with a 5-game winning streak. The last time the Rodgers played a Ford Field, he threw a Hail-Mary TD bomb that traveled 65 yards up as well as forward. Rodgers leads the NFL in TD passes. He comes into the game with a streak of 14 TDs without an interception. Detroit is 30th in DVOA against QB's. Jordy is the NFL's leader in RedZone targets. He had 2 TDs in the first game vs. Lions. Is this the Thanksgiving Day game? It sure feels like it because these two guys are going to eat and eat well. I am going to load up my plate with some Rodgers and Jordy and will certainly go back for seconds.
Sticky Note equals C-Note - Should David Johnson rest up for next year? Are the Cardinals done? Will DJ get the same amount of usage? I don’t know and neither does anyone else. Since nobody knows then I am putting my money on DJ. All year I have played him. Constantly reminding myself of this sticky note via @MarcasG has made me a decent amount of money. But David Johnson is the running back. He's a machine. Don't overthink it. Play DJ. If you are wrong, then you went down swinging with the best running back in the NFL who has had 100+ all-purpose yards in EVERY GAME this season. Against a so-called impenetrable defense last week in Seattle, he had 3 TDs and 34.6 DKpts. In 5 of his last 6 games, he has 27+ points. Per @LateRoundQB, DJ’s weekly PPR rankings at RB are: 6, 10, 5, 19, 1, 1, 6, 11, 5, 1, 1, 1, 10, 5. I am betting on him because that is what the sticky note says as the bank account has grown.
Vegas Baby Vegas - Here are some games that I'd suggest you target as game stacks. The first two have playoff implications. The third is for pride with interesting coaching subplots attached to them. Highest game totals (as predicted by Bovada) are Saints @ Falcons (56.5), Packers @ Lions (49.5), Jaguars @ Colts (47.0)
You're Dead to Me - Adam Thielen was the #1 overall scorer last week. I was All-In on Adam Thielen . . . in week 15 with he had 0 points! Last week, I decided not to go down that rabbit hole again. He was dead to me as he was to the other 98% of the entries into the $1.5 million contest. Fortunately, I got lucky with a stage five clinger like Allen Robinson and his partner-in-crime, Blake Bortles or all of my lineups would have been dead to me. Who is the guy that is dead to me this week? Vernon Davis. In week 15 he was facing a weak Chicago Bears defense and was coming off a game with 9 targets. Throw-in the fact that Jordan Reed was out and what was there not to like? He proceded to catch one pass for 13 yards. His team scored 41 points and he accumulated 2.3 DK points. I like Washington's offense. I like Davis' potential. However, if Jordan Reed is out again, I will have 0.0% exposure to Vernon Davis, even at $3,300.
Quizz Show – Doug Martin is out for trying to enhance his performance (needs a refund) and Charles Sims is injured. That leaves Jacquizz Rodgers as the main back for Tampa Bay as they take on Carolina in Week 17. In the three games that both Sims and Martin have been out this year, Quizz has gotten heavy usage to the tune of 82 touches (27/game), including 30 carries and 5 receptions totaling 129 scrimmage yards in Week 5 against Carolina.
Never Go Against a Sicilian When Death is on the Line - Could also be called "never get involved in a land war in Asia" or "don't ever argue with your wife" . . . all classic blunders. Playing any Steelers (or anyone else that has nothing to gain) would also be a classic blunder. Sure, they could get a decent amount of work and score some points early and often in an A+ matchup against the winless one-win Browns. Sure you could have bought Enron stock after all their executives were indicted because you just knew that there was no way you can keep a big-time company like them down. Or, you could have pick an alternative option … any option and saved money. I apologize to the head cheerleader and all of Steeler nation for just comparing the Killer B’s to Enron. #BadAnalogy but you get the point. Don’t make the amateur mistake. Don’t over think it. There are enough other players out there that you can get excited about. Play someone else, enjoy watching the games and save your money.
Back to the Future – According to @ScottBarrettDFB, last year’s top-5 RB’s (PPR scoring) in Week 17 were (1) Rashad Jennings, (2) DuJuan Harris, (3) Tim Hightower, (4) Ronnie Hillman and (5) Jonathan Grimes. Can we learn something from the past to help us this week? Before you set your lineups, make sure that you know if a team has something to play for and a reason to play their money-makers
Banana in the Tailpipe – How many times are we going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe. Amari Cooper is very talented. Oakland is a great team. Derek Carr is an outstanding quarterback but his backup is still a backup. Cooper has explosion capabilities as he has demonstrated with his two 30+ performances this year. Denver is the toughest D against WR’s. He is playing with a backup QB. Cooper has averaged only 8.6 DK points in the last five games and that was with an All-Pro caliber QB. Don’t do it. Don’t fall for him again. He is a great talent with a high ceiling and a very low price of $5,500 this week. However, even if he meets 3x value at 16.5 points, that would be only the 5th time all year he has met that number. Might be worth a flier in a GPP but against Denver’s “No-Fly Zone” D and a backup QB is probably a -/EV.
Stage Five Clinger - Let's face it, we all like the hot girl that is into us. We don't like the hot girl that won't leave us alone and is pulling us down into the abyss. Larry Fitzgerald is like that hot girl. He is one is a future Hall of Famer. He has only averaged 9.8 pts per game over the past 5 weeks while averaging 49 yards. He has gone 10 straight games without a TD, which is the longest drought of his career. Yet I keep playing him. I can't get rid of him. He has grabbed on to my fantasy soul like he I am a 3 yard reception. But he's so attractive. Fitz is 2nd in the NFL in receptions with 102 (trailing Antonio Brown’s 106) and 7th in targets with 143. Carson Palmer doesn’t throw the long ball effectively any more so Fitz’s skill set is still useful. Just this week, he mentioned that he might want to play one more year. This tells me that he’s not done yet. He only has 5 TD’s this year. That means he has to be due, right? He is also going against the Rams. The Rams are terrible. They are 28th in DVOA against the pass. Did I mention that the Rams are terrible? Fitzgerald is a future hall of famer who wants it. Wants it bad. I can feel it. Come on Fitz. Give me a performance like ARob last week. If I can’t get rid of you, then please be worth it . . . at least for a day. He has reached double digit DK points in twelve of his 15 games this year so that is promising. However, all three misses have been within the last 5 weeks. But he's due!
Belichick Yourself - Patriots are dangerous to roster in fantasy. It is as if the hooded one purposely tries to deflate our bankrolls. Yep, see what I did there? Anyways, this seems like a juicy spot for New England with the #1 seed on the line but so was last year when they lost at Miami in Week 17 and Denver got home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Even if they do show up and take care of business, who exactly will be taking care of business? Edelman is getting less and less snaps. Bennett is a mystery. Hogan has been hurt. Mitchell is a rookie. Floyd is a newcomer. They are favored by 9 points so it seems to be a "Blount Force Trauma" game but they have three NFL starting caliber backs sharing time. None of them played more than 29 snaps last week. I don't feel real secure playing any Patriot except Brady. I will have him in some GPPs but with him costing essentially the same as Aaron Rodgers (who I believe is the optimal play), I won't have a large exposure to him. Also, good luck figuring out who on the Dolphins is fantasy-viable against the Belichick-led defensive unit.
It's a Bold Strategy Cotton - I love DeAngelo Williams. He is my favorite 33 year old running back. Yes, he got hurt this year but if healthy, he would have been better than half of the starters in the NFL. It looks like the Steelers are going to rest all-world Le'Veon Bell this week. In the 2 games that the Steelers actually played while Bell was suspended (the third game was the 34-3 debacle at the hands of the Eagles, which can hardly be called a real game), Williams had 38 and 23 DK points. Per Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Fantasy, in the past 2 years when Le’Venon Bell has been out, DeAngelo Williams has 10 games of double digit points in standard leagues (out of 13 total games). He is hungry, talented and going against Browns (2nd worst defense in NFL). I will be firing up some D. Will in my GPP's and hoping that Fitz Touissant (one of the only Michigan Wolverines I haven't liked) doesn't vulture carries.
So You're Telling Me There's a Chance - The Colts are about to get Bortled up with some ARob. Last week, Blake Bortles, who came into the game with more pick-sixes than wins in his career, had 29.70 DK points (QB6). Allen Robinson, who was last week's "Stage Five Clinger", had a season-high 26.7 (WR7). This week they get to go on the road to Indianapolis. The game is projected to be a shootout. The colts are average at best on defense. Bortles to ARob will not be the top stack of the week (that will be Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson) but it will be Top-3 as they have no running game and play for pride (and stats).
Princess Leia Lineup of the Week - I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players without doing extensive research. Back in the day, I was in love with Princess Leia but I didn't end up marrying her. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don't end up using it completely in my cash games (which I have won at 60% clip this year, btw). Here is my early lineup:
- Russell Wilson ($6,800) – Playing for the #2 seed, coming off his best game of the season with 37.6 points and going against one of, if not the worst defense in the NFL.
- Mark Ingram ($5,600) – Had 2 TDs and 25.3 DK points last week. He now faces Atlanta, the league’s 26th worst defense against RB’s, in the highest projected scoring game of the weekend. He is also 60 yards shy of his first 1,000 yard season (if you want to take a trip down narrative street). The Saints are out of the playoffs but they would probably love to stick it to their division rivals who are fighting for the NFC’s 2-seed.
- Bilal Powell ($6,500) – He has averaged 24 points in the last three weeks. If he is healthy and Forte is out, his usage should be extremely high regardless of game-flow. His opponent, Buffalo, has given up the most fantasy point to RB’s in the last four weeks, while allowing 7 rushing TDs in that span.
- Cam Meredith ($5,200) – 33 targets in the last 3 games leading to 73 DK points during that span. Cash games are all about volume and he meets that criteria. He is simply too cheap for his usage.
- Jordy Nelson ($8,200) – Has 22+ DK points in six of his last 8 games. He has double digit games in all but one this year. Last week, he was the #4 overall scorer (39.4) on the week despite going against a “good” defense in the Vikings.
- Adam Thielen ($5,600) – Top overall scorer last week with 46.8 DK points. He had 12 catches for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has double-digit points in seven of the last 8 games.
- Charles Clay ($3,500) – He was on the field for 87 of 92 snaps in the Week 16 overtime loss. He has 23 targets in the last 3 games, accounting for an average of 20 DK points and 4 TD’s.
- LeGarrette Blount ($5,700) – Double digit DK points in eight of last 10 games. He leads the NFL in touchdowns with 17. The Patriots are favored by 9 in a game that still has meaning for them and may call upon the power back to finish it out.
- Arizona Cardinals ($3,000) – Only 4 teams have turned the ball over more than the Rams, led by rookie QB Jared Goff. Arizona ranks 6th in takeaways.
ESPN FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION
Christmas night brought my team ("Michigan Go
Blue") a season-long fantasy football championship. Going into the Championship weekend against a
team that had defeated me handily earlier in the season, ESPN's analytics had
the game as a coin flip. Fortunately, my
team saved its best performance for when it mattered most. Scoring 210 points was 30 points more than
any previous league team scored in any week during the year. Despite the GM of "Michigan Go
Blue" making a rookie mistake and the draft gods not cooperating, a
Championship Trophy was hoisted in the Bechler household. Well, actually there was no trophy but a
Tiger Woods fist pump did ensue.
There were a number of situations and decisions
that could have sunk my chances but with some dumb luck and shrewd foresight,
we were able to come out on top. When draft
day came, I drew the last spot. No David
Johnson. No Antonio Brown. No Julio Jones (I live in Atlanta). No Aaron Rodgers. You get the point. I also assumed that it was standard ESPN
scoring. Boy was I wrong. Not only did QB's get a lot more points, but
this was also a two quarterback league.
My strategy was to wait and take the best available QB because I didn't
feel that there was a huge difference between the #1 and #12 on a given week
over the course of a whole season. In
the 11th round, I discovered my error and Tyrod Taylor was the best remaining
QB. I ended up starting the season
2-2. That is when I decided to make a
trade. Not just any trade, but a trade
that could make or break my team's season.
I traded Ezekiel Elliot and Dak Prescott for Melvin Gordon and Philip
Rivers. Two Dallas Cowboys stars for one
San Diego star (Rivers) and a Chargers enigma (Gordon). Seriously...you read that right. I traded away two people who are constantly in
the Most Valuable Player talk.
You see, there is hope for people that make mistakes or are
drafting last in their season-long fantasy drafts. Congratulations if you were a winner this
year and good luck next year.
TRUST THE PROCESS: Week 16 Preview
ESPN FANTASY FOOTBALL - Semifinals Preview
Despite making a rookie mistake and not knowing the rules of the new league that I joined up with this year, My MICHIGAN GO BLUE team is still the top seed and has a semifinal matchup this week against a team that I have already beaten twice (currently the projected score is 153-138). I didn't know until the 11th round of the draft that passing TD's = 6 points and that you play two quarterbacks each week ... oops. Come on Tyrod Taylor and Phillip Rivers. I know, I can't believe I am the top-seed either! But I drafted Le'Veon Bell first and made some shrewd moves throughout the year.
My current starts and reserves are below. Hit me up @WinningDFS101 if you think I should do something different with my lineup.
QB - Tyrod Taylor, Phillip Rivers
RB - Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy
WR - Mike Evans, Sammie Watkins
TE - Travis Kelce
Flex - Thomas Rawls
DST - Kansas City Chiefs
K - Brandon McManus
Bench RB's - Doug Martin, Melvin Gordon
Bench WR's - Michael Thomas, Alshon Jeffrey, Brandin Cooks
Bench TE's - Jimmy Graham
Bench DST's - Minnesota Vikings
TRUST THE PROCESS: Week 14 Cash Game Lineup Review
Eli Manning (QB) - He was practically free at only $500 above the minimum. He was at home and though Dallas was 10-1, they don't have a dominate pass defense. Going against a strong run defense and being a slight home-underdog, I believed the Giants would take to the air. The Cowboys had given up 20 TD's and an average of 285 passing yards to opponents this year. I personally don't like Eli. I don't like the Giants. He hasn't had a particularly strong fantasy season so far with an average of 16.5 DK points, but he had 19.5 points in the first meeting and had 5 straight games of 13+ points so it is not like he's Ryan Fitzpatrick. I typically pay down at quarterback because the gap between the top-tier performers and lower-tier performers is not as wide as RB or WR. Did I mention he was PRACTICALLY FREE?!? Man, I still don't like Eli.
Devontae Freeman (RB)
- Atlanta was fairly big road favorite against the Jeff Fisher-led (but
soon to be not-led) Rams. The Rams have
been a train-wreck and Atlanta is firing on all cylinders. More importantly, the Falcons top two WRs
(including all-world, Julio Jones) were going to miss this game. Freeman had scored 20+ points (including 2 TDs) in each of the last two
weeks against good run defenses in Kansas City and Arizona. I loved Freeman in this spot against a
dysfunctional team where he projected for a huge usage, especially if the
Falcons got up early. I liked him almost as much as Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson and so I
was okay taking him instead of fitting both of the studs in the lineup. Tevin Coleman was a slight concern but
Freeman has 11 red zone carries and has
gotten the ball more in the last two weeks since Coleman's return.
David Johnson (RB) -
I have played DJ every week this season except for the Jets and Vikings because
they had great run defenses. He went for
37.8 and 38.0 points, respectively in those two games. I now play DJ no matter what. He was a lock for me even before seeing the
opponent. He is game-flow independent. If Arizona is winning, he is the bell cow
back. If Arizona is trailing, he becomes
the WR target. He was tied with Odell
with 34 targets in the last three weeks.
Did I mention David Johnson NO MATTER WHAT?!?
Jeremy Hill (FLEX) -
Starting RB against the Brownies who is getting heavy usage is a must-consider.
Since I am not a fan of Hill's, the price was a little steep but it's Cleveland
for Pete's sake - don't over think it.
He is not real efficient or good, but don't isn't always important in
DFS. In cash games, usage/volume (and to
an extent opponent) is everything. High
usage vs. the Brownies - CHECK! In 5 of his last 6 games, he reached
double-digit DK points, which made him a safe play for cash with some upside
potential since it was against the BROWNIES!
Jamison Crowder (WR)
- I don't normally like Washington WR's for cash games because you don't
always know who is going to get the volume in certain games. But rostering DJ limited options a little
bit. With all of that said, I really
like Crowder. He has had at least 85
yards and/or a TD in the last seven games.
He has had double-digit DK points in all but one game this year. That is Erik Decker like production and I
loved me some Erik Decker in cash games.
Jamison was a good bet to reach value and possibly have upside against a
struggling Philadelphia secondary. His
consistent performance this year made me comfortable even with the spread it
out tendencies of the Washington passing game.
Jordan Matthews (WR)
- He was coming off a slight injury that limited him in Week 13 but in
weeks 9-12, he saw 10+ targets in every game.
I didn't figure he'd see much of Josh Norman as he doesn't go out of his
way to cover slot receivers. Cash game
is all about volume and I expected Matthews to get a lot of it.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR)
- He was coming off a bad performance at Jacksonville but that was with
rookie QB Paxton Lynch. With Trevor
Simien returning, I anticipated he would receive a good deal of targets and
they might be more accurate. He got 9
targets in the Jacksonville game but only caught 3. Going into Week 14, he had 9+ targets in five
straight games. He also had a monster
game of 32 DK points in Week 12 against the Chiefs. Talented player receiving a high volume -
sign me up!
Jason Witten (TE) -
I hate Tight Ends in fantasy football. I
probably hate them more than kickers. Don't
get me wrong, I love TE's in real life.
I don't think the majority of coaches utilize them enough, especially
when they have a struggling or young quarterback. However, real life is not fantasy. In fantasy, I hate Tight Ends. They are
inconsistent. Ladarius Green was the
chalk but I didn't like him enough to roster him. I thought Tyler Eifert and Cameron Brate had
a ton of upside but wanted to use them for tournaments (by the way, my Eifert
lineups won me some money because - CLEVELAND).
That led me to good OLD reliable Jason Witten. Per Al Ziedenfeld, Witten has been a top-5 TE
on the week in each of the past 8 games vs. the Giants. This year, in the opening vs. the Giants,
Witten saw 14 targets and accumulated 15.6 DK points. At a low $3,100, this was a pretty easy decision. Essentially he'd only have to catch 5 passes
for 45 yards to meet value.
Colts (DST) -
Defense/Special Team touchdowns are tough to predict. That doesn't stop me from trying, however. I
really liked Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans) and Minnesota (vs. Mr. Pick-6 Blake
Bortles) this week. But I decided to use them in tournaments because of the
potential high upside. I really liked my
roster and was looking for a DST to fit in that I could stomach. I eventually settled on the Colts. They were a home favorite which meant the
opponent would be forced to play catchup and air out the ball. Their opponent in Week 14? One of the more mistake-prone quarterbacks in
the NFL, Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans.
I didn't love the pick but I could live with it.
RECAP - As usual, am I
results-oriented or process-oriented?
This was easily a week that could cause me to panic and have a knee-jerk
reaction for week 15. Before submitting
my lineup in Week 14, I ask myself if I can live with every selection I made
and whether or not the selection has sound rationale.
I decided to go with only
one of the dynamic duo, which would allow me to plug in three mid-priced WRs
instead of trying to gamble at those positions. With having Freeman as someone that I liked
almost as much as Bell and DJ, that made me feel more comfortable going into
Sunday and allowed me to have a balanced with lineup with a decent floor and a
high ceiling. I have no regrets taking
DJ over Bell (though I am leaning toward using both for Week 15, but that is
because I don't love someone like I did Freeman).
Hindsight is 20-20,
however, was the outcome a result of variance or a bad process? I have won 65% of my H2H's this year since
developing my process. My score wasn't
great this week but I still won 52% of my H2H's. Each week, thousands of DFS players are
burdened with the "Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda", but we can't be stressed
by this. Having a trustworthy process
and believing in your research is a long-term +EV.
"I Can't Believe You Played DJ Instead of Bell"
Unless you were out of the country saving the rain forests
or brokering peace in the Middle East then you know that Le'Veon Bell had the
4th best fantasy performance of all-time in Week 14 (according to DraftKings). He mollywhopped the Ryan Brothers and their
Buffalo Bills so bad that Rex was questioning even his choice of quarterback,
as if Tyrod Taylor had anything to do with giving up 298 yards and 3 touchdowns. Naturally, all of the monday morning
quarterbacks hit the twittersfere with the "I can't believe you played
David Johnson over Le'Veon Bell, he was the stone-cold Steve Austin nuts"
or something similar to that. However,
that it is a dangerous though to have in fantasy sports. Those of us that play fantasy sports fall
into this trap often. We use the
outcomes to make definitive statements.
We become results-oriented. We
dwell on "coulda, shoulda, woulda".
A successful player conducts trustworthy research and then
makes an informed decision. Deciding on
Bell or DJ in Week 14 was like deciding on pie or cookies for dessert. Both should satisfy your sweet tooth. If you get a stomach ache after eating one or
the other, it doesn't necessarily mean that you made the wrong choice. You might have gotten a sick eating either
one. You might just be getting the
flu. DJ vs. Bell was the choice of two
awesome desserts. It wasn't like you
were choosing between pie or eggnog that had been sitting out all day. Speaking
of that analogy, you are not a genius if you did choose the eggnog but didn't
get sick. You are just lucky. If you chose Bilal Powell (eggnogg) last
week, you got lucky. If you chose Powell and Matt Forte doesn't get
hurt then you didn't get unlucky, you just got what you deserved because you
made a decision that really didn't make sense.
Which brings us back to DJ vs. Bell. DJ owners got unlucky. They experienced variance. Bell owners got lucky. They experienced variance. Bell had a day for the record-books. That can't be predicted. DJ's subpar performance couldn't reliably be predicted. He leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and has
15 touchdowns. He also averages 28.5 DK
points per game, which is tops in fantasy.
His price was high but so was Bell's.
Why all of this matters is because it tends to alter our process. It tends to shape our thinking for the next
week. Sure, we must always be cognizant
of the past and learn from it. But when
we overreact to a massive game like Bell had or an underperforming one like DJ
had, we are in danger of not thinking clearly.
Have a system and trust that system.
In other words, trust the process and don't be overly
critical of apples to apples decisions.
Bell over DJ, DJ over Bell is a no-lose situation from a decision-making
standpoint as long as we are trying to have a long-term perspective. If the Ryan Brothers had completely stacked
the box against Bell and Big Ben had his normal road-game woes, you still
wouldn't have been wrong picking Bell in that situation. It was a good decision either way. One just happened to be a better outcome than
the other. Trust your process and don't
over think things.
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